EDIT #1: Just three minutes after posting this comment, a bus arrived! Not great, but not bad; it remains to be seen how often buses will arrive until trains can run normally again.

EDIT #2: Nine minutes after posting the last edit, a replacement bus arrives at the same time as the train. My cynicism is unwarranted!

3rd & Howard, 2400′
Stockton & Post, 3200′

10 mins, more or less — the most conservative rule of thumb for the distance most folks will talk to/from a train station. I know I’d certainly walk rather than transfer and pay a separate fare. You may be right.

The MTA predicts that 89% of the activity at the 4th/King platform will be connected to Caltrain transfers, so unlike the other stations, we’re looking at a regional ridership. These riders will have already paid (or will pay) Caltrain fare, and so I wonder how many people would rather pay just one fare and just walk further? For many destinations, particularly those just east of the CS alignment, the walk would be about 10 minutes from either Transbay or 4th/King Caltrain stations. Is that just close enough to encourage skipping the T altogether?

This will likely depend on how well the T is operated, and maybe I’m inserting my own sort of frugal bias here. I don’t really know one way or the other, but I would like to see some honest projections.

This is yet another reason why the viability of this project only increases as it is extended into and past Washington Square. The destinations currently served by the CS are geographically close enough to each other that the time savings just aren’t that apparent.

I agree re: 4th & Brannan. Putting the portal under the freeway was by and large a good move, although I worry about the 4th Street off-ramp.

DTX serves a different market, and the projections weren’t all that clear on how many riders are going where, but the figures definitely include riders who would switch over to Caltrain if the extension is built. Not to mention the fact that many people bound for SoMa or Union Square (once DTX is built) would rather just pay one fare and walk.

I’m not sure if they’ve considered moving the Powell boarding zone, but hopefully they have, as it’s the obvious way to help at least a little bit.

I agree that moving the Chinatown station a block north (and also introducing the surface station at Brannan) were both good moves.

I hadn’t seen the 4 1/2-minute figure. I take it that’s an average? There is one easy way Muni could mitigate, if only slightly: move the outbound boarding area at Powell to mid-platform, opposite inbound boarding.

And as long as I’m defending the CS (WTF? I guess if it’s a fait accompli, may as well just accept it), pushing it a block farther north is a bigger deal than the distance (~300′) would suggest. That cuts the walk from the busiest corner in Chinatown (Stockton and Pacific) by a third and goes a long way toward closing the psychological gap between the subway and North Beach.